Recently released government data reveals that Japan's population decline continues for an eighth consecutive year, with births dimin...
Recently released government data reveals that Japan's population decline continues for an eighth consecutive year, with births diminishing to a historic low in 2023.
In 2023, there were only 758,631 reported births in Japan, including to Japanese citizens, foreigners and even from Japanese citizens living abroad. This is a 5.1 percent drop from 2022's 799,728 recorded births, making it the lowest number of births ever witnessed since recordkeeping began in 1899. (
Moreover, the data reveals that Japan has failed to keep pace with the escalating number of deaths in 2023. In that same year, the country recorded a staggering 1,574,865 deaths. Meaning to say, for every two Japanese people dying, only one is born. For a nation with a population of around 125 million, losing close to a million people annually is deemed unsustainable.
The decline in births has occurred more rapidly than earlier projections, which anticipated reaching an annual number below 760,000 by 2035. Given all the data, Japan's population is projected to decrease by approximately 30 percent to 87 million by 2070, with four out of every 10 people aged 65 or older.
Last year, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned the public that Japan is already "on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions."
The shrinking and aging population will eventually become too small to support the economy and national security of Japan. Industries are now experiencing labor shortages, and it's tough to fill job positions because not many young people are joining the workforce. Some rural communities are dying out and one village hasn't seen any new births in 25 years. Even service jobs in the cities are now being occupied by young immigrants and students from China and Vietnam.
Kishida declared the birth rate problem "the biggest crisis Japan faces," and proposed a package of measures to try and convince couples to have children, including increased support and subsidies for childbirth, children and families.
However, experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of these efforts, as they mainly target individuals who are already married or planning to have children, overlooking the growing population of young people reluctant to get married and start families.
Japan's historical trajectory predicted current demographic crisis
James Raymo, a professor of sociology and demography at Princeton University, stated that the crisis is not solely rooted in behavioral choices but is also deeply entwined with the country's historical trajectory.
According to Raymo, the fertility rate of Japan has been persistently below the required 2.1 fertility rate to maintain a stable population for five decades now, plummeting after the 1973 global oil crisis and never recovering. In other words, the population will continue to shrink annually due to the long-standing low fertility rate.
"Even if all of a sudden Japanese married couples started having three children on average, the population would continue to decline. The number of births would, for a while, still continue to decline. It’s not reversible," Raymo said.
Moreover, in 2023, the country witnessed a nearly six percent decline in new marriages, dipping below 500,000 for the first time in 90 years. Divorces also increased by 2.6 percent last year.
A 2022 survey conducted by the government's Institute of Population and Social Security Research found that a majority in Japan are not interested in starting families. Among single adults who haven't been married, fewer express a desire to get married compared to previous years. More of them say they wouldn't feel lonely if they stayed single. Additionally, about one-third mentioned that they are not interested in having a romantic relationship.
Raymo suggests that the high cost of living, stagnant economy, limited space and demanding work culture of Japan discourage young people from dating and marrying. The patriarchal society of Japan is also a deterrent for women. Despite governmental efforts to involve husbands more in caregiving roles, societal expectations persist, leading to a reluctance to form families. In turn, young adults delay marriage for years until they are 35 or 40.
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