Political analysts have warned that the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the 2024 presidential race has left the Democratic Party i...
Political analysts have warned that the withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the 2024 presidential race has left the Democratic Party in turmoil less than four months before Election Day.
On July 21, the 81-year-old Biden announced in a post on X that he would step aside as the Democratic Party's nominee in the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. He followed this up with an address from the White House. The announcement came after weeks of mounting pressure from fellow Democrats due to a disastrous debate performance against former President Donald Trump in June.
However, Kyle Kondik, the managing editor for Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, stated that this decision is unprecedented in modern American politics.
"We're in uncharted territory here," Kondik said.
Biden, having secured nearly all pledged delegates, becomes the first presumptive nominee of a major party to withdraw after the primaries have concluded. Unlike historical conventions before the 1972 primary system overhaul, where outcomes were often uncertain, recent decades have seen a more predictable nomination process.
"I don’t really think there's any good recent precedent for it. Half a century or more ago, it wasn’t uncommon to go into the convention not necessarily knowing for sure who the nominee was going to be," Kondik said. "But since then, we haven't had this sort of situation where somebody dominates the primary season – but then steps aside later, in advance of the convention."
With no historical precedent, Democrats must improvise within their guidelines to select a new nominee.
Biden's endorsement of Harris, coupled with support from prominent Democrats, bolsters her position. Senators, state leaders and governors, including potential rivals like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, have publicly backed her. Kondik claimed that Harris' national recognition and existing campaign infrastructure make her the "path of least resistance."
Similarly, Meena Bose, a political science professor at Hofstra University, claimed that Harris is the most logical choice for a seamless transition.
Hans Noel, a professor at Georgetown University's Department of Government, also suggested that voters would expect Harris to assume the nomination, considering her role as vice president and strong party support. However, Noel warned that nominating someone else could be seen as bypassing a Black woman, potentially alienating key constituencies within the party.
"The vice presidential candidate does not automatically become the presidential candidate, but I think a lot of voters would sort of expect that," Noel said in an email to Al Jazeera. "Given that she’s in that position, there are a lot of reasons not to go to someone else. She does have a lot of support in the party, but more importantly, nominating someone else would look like skipping over a Black woman, which would not look good for many in the party."
However, questions about the fate of Biden's campaign funds also emerged. Launching a new and successful presidential campaign still demands substantial resources, including massive investments of time, money and manpower.
"Campaigns take huge amounts of infrastructure, money [and] messaging to get through to the voters that we know are most undecided," said Casey Burgat, the director of the Legislative Affairs program at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management.
Voters have a lot to say about Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election
Harris has emerged as the early favorite to replace Biden, especially after receiving his endorsement. But reactions from voters are another concern.
Some Biden supporters felt energized by the prospect of a different candidate, specifically Harris, potentially having a stronger chance against former President Donald Trump. However, not all voters are rallying behind Harris. In Butler, Pennsylvania, Angela Bost stated that Harris' gender might be a barrier for some voters.
"I think a lot of men might not be all right with that," she said. Casey Brett, a Democratic voter from Grand Rapids, Michigan, described Harris as "the safe choice" but questioned if she was the best option.
Some voters are even suggesting alternative candidates. Ron Brooker, a 77-year-old Phoenix resident, mentioned Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), as a potential nominee. Others have floated former First Lady Michelle Obama as a possible candidate.
Among Trump supporters, Biden's exit has bolstered their resolve. Tyler Kunkowski, 18, a Republican from Florida, viewed the news as advantageous for Trump.
"A lot of Democrats do not support Kamala Harris, and no other candidate has enough time to get a strong campaign together by election time," he said. Casey Bushick, 34, from Atlanta, expressed steadfast support for Trump.
For independent voters, Biden's exit presents new opportunities. Steven Dilts, an independent voter from Alaska, sees this as a chance for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "I think this is Kennedy's chance," Dilts said, believing that Biden supporters might align more with Kennedy than Harris.
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